Scenarios

• •Achieving real progress on Yemen file by halting Houthi escalation and Iranian pressure on them
• •Building mutual trust through genuine economic and commercial cooperation beyond political relations
• •Sustained international support, especially from China, to stabilize the agreement and limit negative American influences

Relationship evolution from current de-escalation to broad economic partnership, with relative stability in regional files and improved Gulf security.

• •Continued reconciliation at diplomatic level while disagreements persist on regional files, especially Syria and Lebanon
• •Cautious balance between the two states without real development in economic or security cooperation
• •Relations affected by international developments and American pressures on both parties

Relations remain in relative calm without bold rapprochement steps, with possibility of limited disputes over pending regional files.

• •Continued Houthi targeting of Saudi territory without firm Iranian response to stop them
• •New regional escalation especially in Syria, Iraq or Lebanon reigniting sectarian and geopolitical disagreements
• •Change in American or Chinese policy reducing agreement support and increasing pressures on both parties

New rupture of diplomatic relations and return to sharp competition for regional influence, with possibility of direct or proxy military confrontations.

• •Rapid improvement in Middle East security conditions by Q2 2026
• •Completion of all knockout matches in regular order by summer/autumn
• •Increased investment by Gulf and Arab clubs in players and infrastructure
• •Enhanced cooperation between Asian federations to promote tournament globally

Tournament becomes stronger than ever with record attendance and global media coverage, strengthening Arab clubs' position in the competitive Asian landscape.

• •Relative calm in security situation with expected periodic fluctuations
• •Gradual return of matches with enhanced safety measures
• •Rescheduling some matches to neutral grounds or secure Asian countries
• •Continued intensive security monitoring by AFC

Tournament continues but with less momentum, reduced attendance and marketing capacity, yet maintains technical credibility by producing a worthy champion.

• •Repeated security escalation lasting at least 3+ months
• •Countries/clubs withdrawing for security or political reasons
• •Lack of funding, media and fan support due to uncertainty
• •AFC forced to make radical changes to tournament format

Complete suspension or cancellation of 2025-26 edition, causing billions in economic damage, damaging Asian football's reputation, and denying Arab clubs championship opportunities.

• •Enactment of unified international legislation establishing strict ethical standards for AI development
• •Establishment of multidisciplinary councils including philosophers, ethicists, scientists, and civil society representatives to monitor system development
• •Adoption of 'transparency and accountability' as the foundation for system design from inception
• •Public awareness of AI ethics and integration of this knowledge into educational curricula

Development of responsible and transparent AI systems capable of making sound ethical decisions while preserving cultural diversity and human values, building genuine trust between humans and machines.

• •Divergence of regulations across regions and countries, creating gaps between Eastern, Western, and Global South standards
• •Emergence of diverse ethical standards reflecting different cultural values without genuine global consensus
• •Persistence of major corporations ignoring ethical restraints in pursuit of profit and speed
• •Unstable equilibrium between technological innovation and ethical protection

An unequal global system where some nations develop ethically governed AI systems while others pursue technological dominance, creating new challenges in justice and equality among nations.

• •Failure of international efforts to establish unified ethical standards due to geopolitical and economic conflicts
• •Continuation of fierce technological competition without regard for ethical and social consequences
• •Development of advanced AI systems that may possess degrees of consciousness without adequate protection mechanisms
• •Lack of transparency and continued system development in pursuit of power and control rather than human benefit

Powerful AI systems operating without clear ethical frameworks, potentially leading to unexpected behaviors and violations of human values, with potential existential risks and loss of human control over development trajectories.

• •Urgent international intervention from Russia, China, and European powers to contain escalation
• •Return to nuclear negotiations through Omani or Kuwaiti mediation channels
• •US commitment to reducing demands and accepting Iranian concessions on enrichment
• •Prevention of conflict expansion to Iran's allies including Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias

A comprehensive agreement is reached involving reduced enrichment levels and international guarantees against regional destabilization, allowing for lifting economic sanctions and returning to relative stability in the Middle East.

• •Continuation of limited strikes exchange among parties without expansion to new fronts
• •Iran's reliance primarily on guided ballistic missiles for retaliation without directly threatening Hormuz Strait
• •Restraint by Hezbollah and Houthis with limited selective attacks
• •Gulf states seeking diplomatic solutions to prevent hostilities expansion

The confrontation extends over 2-3 years with heavy military and economic costs on both sides, with each side declaring limited tactical victories, potentially resulting in a phased settlement that freezes the situation without fundamental resolution.

• •Expansion of Israeli-American attacks to target civilian infrastructure and vital facilities
• •Comprehensive Iranian retaliation including attacks on Hormuz Strait or threatening global shipping
• •Full activation of Iran's allied network including Hezbollah, Houthis, and pro-Iranian elements in Iraq
• •Failure of all international mediation efforts and entry of new regional powers into the conflict

The conflict transforms into a comprehensive regional war affecting multiple Middle Eastern countries, with partial or complete disruption of shipping in Hormuz Strait, sharp rise in global oil prices, global economic crisis, and potential collapse or partition of the Iranian state.

• •Development of strict ethical standards and robust regulatory frameworks for digital applications
• •Success of responsible AI in providing safe and effective psychological support
• •Massive government investments in equitable access and interoperable systems
• •Building user trust in digital mental health systems

A hybrid model emerges combining AI as an indispensable assistant with human therapists as guides, increasing service access by 60% while maintaining quality, privacy, and full effectiveness

• •Rapid growth in digital applications with uneven quality and general lack of oversight
• •Wealthy nations benefit from technology while the gap widens in developing countries
• •Chronic resource and specialist shortages continue in most sectors
• •Partial adoption of ethical standards without full implementation

A two-track development emerges: advanced systems in wealthy nations while poorer countries rely on low-quality apps, with modest 25% improvement in overall access but worsening global health inequality

• •Failure of regulatory oversight for digital applications and artificial intelligence
• •Proliferation of harmful apps mimicking psychological care without clear safety standards
• •Widespread privacy violations and data exploitation by profit-seeking companies
• •General public loss of trust in digital mental health tools

Unregulated technology causing additional psychological harm, patients returning to avoid digital solutions entirely, worsening the global mental health crisis, and shrinking investment in digital mental health

• •Stabilization of media financing through innovative subscription models and AI platform partnerships
• •Journalists' ability to evolve and leverage automation for routine tasks to focus on deep investigations
• •Increased trust in documented media content produced by institutions versus AI-generated content
• •Implementation of high ethical standards and strict governance for AI use in journalism

Evolution of an advanced hybrid model where humans become 'context editors' and machines 'fact-checkers and processors', content quality rises, production time decreases, and media institutions maintain their leading role in shaping public opinion.

• •Gradual decline in traditional media institutions with survival of major players
• •Diverse audience split between documented traditional content, AI-generated content, and independent creators
• •Only 38% of media leaders confident in journalism's future while 53% trust their business outlook
• •Development of unbalanced compromise solutions in AI use without unified ethical standards

Media market splits into three tiers: large professional institutions, AI platforms for fast encyclopedic content, and independent creators. Medium-sized media weakens, creating epistemic divide between 'algorithmic elite' capable of deep content production and mass audience consuming surface-level content.

• •Media institutions fail to secure sustainable funding with digital platforms monopolizing advertising
• •AI-generated content captures over 70% of media consumption
• •Millions of journalists and editors lose jobs without adequate retraining opportunities
• •Complete absence of global regulatory frameworks for AI use in news production

Collapse of traditional media institutions replaced by AI platforms, leading to loss of content diversity and journalistic depth. Misinformation spreads unchecked, superficial knowledge dominates, historical references become distorted, threatening the foundation of democracy built on verified information.

• •Agent models achieve success rates exceeding 95% in reliable tasks
• •Development of unified global security standards enabling safe widespread deployment
• •Reduction of development and implementation costs by 70% or more
• •Adoption of multi-agent systems by 75% of large enterprises

Agentic AI systems become the backbone of enterprise operations, freeing 40-50% of human resources for creative and strategic tasks, generating hundreds of billions in added economic value globally.

• •Industry solves reliability issues partially, maintaining 2-5% error rates
• •40-45% of applications rely on specialized and trustworthy agent systems
• •Human oversight remains necessary in 60% of critical cases
• •Emergence of competitive market between solution providers focusing on security and transparency

Agentic systems coexist with traditional automation, excelling in specific sectors like customer service, financial processing, and data analysis, while preserving essential human roles in strategic and high-risk decision-making.

• •Error rates in agentic systems remain above 10% for complex tasks
• •Security incidents and misuse of autonomous agent systems occur
• •Investor pullback and enterprise skepticism due to major project failures
• •Strict regulations limiting agent system autonomy and deployment

Agentic AI enters a disillusionment phase similar to the Gartner Hype Cycle, with investment pullback and limited focus only on narrow, conservative use cases, requiring fundamental reinvention to overcome core challenges.

• •Continued Middle East geopolitical tensions drive investors to safe havens
• •Superior US economic growth supports demand for American assets
• •Persistent US yield advantage over other currencies maintained through relatively higher interest rates
• •Fed success in achieving soft landing without sharp recession

Dollar Index (DXY) remains in 100-105 range maintaining strength with only modest decline, while US share of global reserves holds at 58-60%, confirming continued dominance.

• •Short-term economic weakness in first half of 2026 prompts Fed to cut rates 1-2 times
• •Dollar Index declines from 100 to 94-96 by Q2
• •Inflation surge in second half from tariffs and government spending halts rate cuts
• •Dollar recovers toward 100 by year-end amid slowing European and global growth

Dollar experiences V-shaped movement: weakens in first half but recovers strongly in second. Reserve share declines to 55-57% but dollar remains dominant currency. DXY ends year at 96-102.

• •Escalating geopolitical crisis leads to global recession and collapse in US asset demand
• •Policy failure amid conflicting Fed and executive decisions destabilizes economy
• •Acceleration of de-dollarization as central banks diversify toward gold and alternatives
• •Collapse of confidence in US fiscal credibility due to massive deficits and high debt

Dollar Index collapses below 90, with reserve share falling to 50% or less. Digital currencies and alternatives gain traction rapidly. US loses position as anchor of global financial system in medium term.