Future Trajectories — Three Scenarios for the US-Israeli War Against Iran in the Coming Years
How will the US-Israeli war against Iran develop? What are the scenarios for the next phase?
🗓 Over the next 2-5 years- •Urgent international intervention from Russia, China, and European powers to contain escalation
- •Return to nuclear negotiations through Omani or Kuwaiti mediation channels
- •US commitment to reducing demands and accepting Iranian concessions on enrichment
- •Prevention of conflict expansion to Iran's allies including Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias
A comprehensive agreement is reached involving reduced enrichment levels and international guarantees against regional destabilization, allowing for lifting economic sanctions and returning to relative stability in the Middle East.
- •Continuation of limited strikes exchange among parties without expansion to new fronts
- •Iran's reliance primarily on guided ballistic missiles for retaliation without directly threatening Hormuz Strait
- •Restraint by Hezbollah and Houthis with limited selective attacks
- •Gulf states seeking diplomatic solutions to prevent hostilities expansion
The confrontation extends over 2-3 years with heavy military and economic costs on both sides, with each side declaring limited tactical victories, potentially resulting in a phased settlement that freezes the situation without fundamental resolution.
- •Expansion of Israeli-American attacks to target civilian infrastructure and vital facilities
- •Comprehensive Iranian retaliation including attacks on Hormuz Strait or threatening global shipping
- •Full activation of Iran's allied network including Hezbollah, Houthis, and pro-Iranian elements in Iraq
- •Failure of all international mediation efforts and entry of new regional powers into the conflict
The conflict transforms into a comprehensive regional war affecting multiple Middle Eastern countries, with partial or complete disruption of shipping in Hormuz Strait, sharp rise in global oil prices, global economic crisis, and potential collapse or partition of the Iranian state.
Since US-Israeli attacks on Iran began in February 2026, the trajectory of Middle Eastern conflict remains uncertain. The fundamental question concerns whether the confrontation will evolve into a prolonged war of attrition, expand into a comprehensive regional conflict, or end through political settlement. The coming weeks will determine the conflict's course, with potential implications for global stability.
